Indicators are pointing to a recovering Montana job market, but it appears there are changes when it comes to the types of jobs that will be available in the state compared with the past, according to a Montana Department of Labor economist.
Using job orders submitted to the state's Job Service for the last six years, Aaron McNay looked at the number of openings that were advertised, the types of openings and the qualifications listed for candidates.
"What we were expecting to find was confirmed," McNay said.
As Montana's unemployment rate climbed, the number of jobs advertised slid. After listed jobs peaked at 34,426 in 2007, the number dropped to 31,522 in 2008, then plummeted to 24,372 in 2009.
However, in the first ninth months of 2010, job orders were 25,320, exceeding the 2009 total. Year end 2010 data is not available yet, but the listed jobs are projected to be about 32,765.
"The number of job orders are a leading indicator of what will happen with the unemployment rate," McNay said.
It that holds true, Montana's unemployment rate, which was most recently reported in November at 7.2 percent, should begin to trend downward.
However, a decline in construction and changes in the economy mean new job opportunities will have a new look in Montana.
"What we tend to see during recessions, and in fact what we did see in this recession, is a drop in construction and housing, which means there are less jobs focused in those areas," McNay said. "Even if we return to the historical levels of construction Montana has seen in the past, it's unlikely that we'll see all the jobs that were available during the building booms in areas such as Flathead and Gallatin counties."
From 2004-2006, employment in construction exploded in Montana, increasing employment in the sector by 36 percent. But the bust cost Montana 9,000 construction jobs from December 2007 to January 2010.
The drop was shocking, said Cary Hegreberg, executive director of the Montana Contractors Association.
"Everyone knew there was over-building in the state, but no one predicted the 35 percent decline we've had since May 2007," he said. "Right now in Montana, we have a mixed bag. We are not seeing a lot of confidence in the private sector to stretch or build or expand with new facilities. On the positive side, the federal highway funding appears to be pretty solid into the next two years, although we won't see the effect of the stimulus dollars we've been seeing the previous two years."
Hegreberg added that retiring baby boomers will leave a void of skilled-trades workers in the near future in Montana.
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The construction sector historically offered opportunities for low-skill applicants seeking entry-level jobs, and those types of opportunities appear to be decreasing, according to McNay's research.
"At the same time, the trend in Montana in health care continues to be one of strong growth as our state's population ages and people need more health care," he said.
Montana's education sector also is seeing job growth.
In 2005, 13.3 percent of all new job openings in Montana were in education and health services. In 2009, 17.7 percent of Montana's job openings were in those sectors.
"Montana's jobs are shifting, from hands-on labor and construction to those in the knowledge-based economy," said Montana Superintendent of Schools Denise Juneau. "And we are working in education to create the work force that is ready to step into those jobs."
For example, when Montana's health care industry lacked radiologic technologists, the post-secondary schools responded, said Liza Benzel, director of the South Central Area Health Education Center. Today six campuses in the state offer associate of applied science programs in the field.
"They answered our call a few years ago and addressed some of those needs," Benzel said.
Historically, rural health care jobs have been more difficult to fill, and that continues today, said Kristin Juliar of the Montana Office of Rural Health and the Montana Area Health Education Center.
"A lot of communities are having success in growing their own, providing opportunities for people who already live in those communities to pursue education in health care fields," she said.
For example, there are new distance education programs in nursing in Hamilton through the Montana College of Technology.
"We have a nurse in Circle who is working to get her nurse practitioners' degree because that community will need a midlevel practitioner when their physician's assistant retires in a couple of years," Juliar said.
he Montana Department of Labor is working on a project funded by the federal Health Resources and Services Administration to gather data on Montana's health care work force to gain a clear understanding of what the state's needs are for workers in that industry.
"There are also opportunities in nonclinical careers in health care," Juliar said. "As we continue to shift to electronic records, we need more health information technology professionals. Montana Tech of the University of Montana and MSU-Great Falls (Montana State University-Great Falls College of Technology) are working on a distance-learning program now so that workers already employed in that field can get training in-house."
There also are newer avenues available to people seeking to enter the education field on nontraditional tracks.
"Today there are internship endorsements that make it easier for teachers who are already employed to obtain licenses in areas such as special education," said Eric Feaver, president of MEA-MFT, an advocacy organization for teachers.
The state also has a Class 4 Career and Technical License for teachers.
"It is a way for people in a profession, who want to get into teaching that skill to take some education classes on how to teach, to step into the classroom," Juneau said. "The Career Center in Billings is a technical high school with several Class 4 licensed teachers for subjects such as graphic design."
Montana also has a Quality Educator Loan Assistance Program that provides student loan repayment for teachers working in critical shortage areas in the education field, such as math. Last year, 163 teachers participated in the program.
