Brazil’s disappointing economy
Stuck in the mud
Feeble growth has forced a change of course. But the government’s room for manoeuvre is more limited than it was
FAILING to meet low expectations is becoming a habit for Brazil’s economy. Figures published on May 29th showed that in the first quarter of this year it grew by just 0.6% (2.4% annualised), well short of the recovery analysts had expected. For the first time in years the country is running a trade deficit. Its primary fiscal surplus (ie, before interest payments) is shrinking and government debt is growing. Other emerging economies are also cutting growth forecasts, as China slows and the euro zone slumps. But Brazil’s woes started earlier than most and seem to be home-grown. Inflation close to 6.5% despite low growth suggests domestic rigidities are the main problem, rather than weak foreign demand.
After becoming president in 2011, Dilma Rousseff sought to stimulate growth by hiking public spending and the minimum wage, and forcing state-run banks to lend more. The resulting inflation was tackled not by raising interest rates but by cutting sales taxes and holding down the price of items with a big impact on the inflation index, including food, petrol and bus fares. Until recently voters reacted favourably, though the economy did not. Polls in March gave Ms Rousseff a record-breaking 79% approval rating, making her the clear favourite to win next year’s presidential election and allowing her to put off economic adjustments until a second term.
But stagnant growth is now hitting Brazilians in their pockets. After successive wage rises, this year’s pay deals barely outpace inflation. Already indebted, households are reining in their spending. Consumer confidence is falling and more people say rising prices are their biggest economic worry.
The swift deterioration in the economic data and public sentiment seems to have forced the government’s hand. Despite the weak growth figures, the Central Bank surprised markets by raising the...Read more >>>
