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Disappearing Jobs: High-Paying Careers With No Future

by Louise Tutelian
Monday, November 22, 2010
It may come as no surprise that the job of newspaper reporter is going the way of the buggy whip maker — but the forces of modernity have placed some unexpected occupations on the endangered species list as well. Using statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Occupational Outlook Handbook 2010-2011, we identified 10 of the most surprising job categories whose numbers are projected to shrink in the coming years, plus a few that will grow so slowly that you might as well be sending your resume to Irish banks.
Judge
Politicians can argue whether the best quality for a judge is empathy or an ability to call balls and strikes, but here's a different perspective: What you really need is patience. By 2018, the BLS predicts that there will be 700 fewer jobs for judges, magistrate judges, and magistrates, than there were in 2008, thanks mainly to budget cuts. And since the average tenure for a judge is 14 years, turnover is glacial. "Years ago, some left to become general counsel in the private sector, where they could triple their salary, but since the economic downturn, they're staying longer on the bench," says Tamara Dillon, who researches the occupation for the BLS.

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Fashion Designer
Call it Project Turnaway. By 2018, only 200 more designers will find work in a field that employed 22,700 people as of 2008. That's about 2 percent of the number who applied to become Project Runway contestants in 2009, estimates Carol-Hannah Whitfield, who was a finalist on the show that year. "The world doesn't need another designer," Whitfield says.
Insurance Underwriter
Blame it on the software. New programs allow underwriters to take on three times as much work as in the past, collapsing the need for more hires. As a result, the BLS projects that the number of people employed in the field will decline by 4 percent, or 4,300 jobs, by 2018. "[The underwriter] just punches in data, and it spits out, say, whether a potential homebuyer is approved or not," says Henry Kasper, supervisory economist at the BLS. Growth in the insurance industry isn't exactly exploding either, further undermining the career outlook for underwriters.
Travel Agent
Call it the Attack of the Roaming Gnome: Online sites such as Travelocity, Priceline.com, Expedia, and Orbitz have decimated the ranks of travel agents as consumers increasingly book their own trips. The BLS expects 1,200 fewer travel agents to be employed in 2018 than in 2008. And the number of traditional travel agencies has been sliced in half — from a peak of 44,000 in 1997 to about 20,000 today, according to Douglas Quinby of PhoCusWright, a travel industry research company based in Sherman, Connecticut.
Newspaper Reporter
Read it and weep: According to the BLS, a whopping 4,400 jobs will disappear by 2018 (out of 69,400 total in 2008). That's more than three times the number of newsroom employees at The New York Times. The bad news for print can be summed up in one word: Internet. "Some of the print people are finding jobs online," says Lauren Csorny, an economist at the BLS. "But there aren't enough to make up for the losses." No wonder that newspaper reporters ranked No. 184 out of 200 jobs, one slot above stevedore, in CareerCast.com's annual JobsRated survey.
Broadcast Announcer
The play-by-play for this occupation isn't pretty. Consolidation has eliminated many jobs already, and technology is hijacking off-air tasks, such as editing, once performed by announcers (and future announcers paying their dues). Add the increased use of syndication and the growth of satellite radio and the picture is even bleaker. By 2018, broadcasting is expected to lose 2,400 radio and TV announcer jobs.
Plant Manager
Automation and offshoring will decimate the ranks of production managers by 2018. According to the BLS, employment will drop by 11,900 jobs from a 2008 total of 156,100. With faster machines and better productivity, one plant can do the work of two, squeezing managers out. Increased imports of manufactured goods will do additional damage. With 50 percent of the textile industry moving off-shore, for example, half the plant managers in that sector are at risk of losing their jobs. The outlook is equally bleak for managers in the computer, electronics, and auto parts industries.
Chemist
Nearly half of all chemists are employed in manufacturing firms — plastics, pesticides, and paint, to name a few. And that's a bummer for them, because manufacturing companies are continuing to outsource their R&D and testing to small, specialized firms, cutting job opportunities for in-house chemists. The profession lost 42,000 jobs from 2008 to 2009, according to Chemical and Engineering News, and the BLS projects only a 2 percent rise in the total number of chemists employed by 2018.
Economist
The Federal government is the largest employer of economists in the country. More than half — 53 percent — of all economists in the U.S. work for declining government sectors, so Uncle Sam's not hiring a lot of economists just now. "Econ" is a hot college major, but most of those newly-minted grads won't find work as traditional economists. Instead, they'll end up in niche sectors in business, finance, insurance, and education. Those set on working as conventional economists better have a Plan B, or a Plan Ph.D, because they'll need one. The economists at BLS do tell us that by 2018, an additional 900 economists will be employed — so the outlook is not as dismal for dismal scientists as it is for, say, travel agents. But if current trends continue, the future isn't promising. "You look at the last 10 to15 years and it has been flat," says Henry Kasper of the BLS. "There's little reason to think it's going to get better."
CEO
OK, it's not a profession, but it's worth keeping in mind if you aspire to the corner office: Mergers and streamlining will make the climb to the top harder than K2, as companies combine and jobs are eliminated. The BLS projects that there will be 5,500 fewer CEOs by 2018. To boost your odds, consider Rosetta Stone; CEO candidates should be fluent in at least two languages, says Patricia Tate of the BLS. So if you speak Spanish, Arabic, or....read more on Yahoo!Finance

Investing Lessons from Sarah Palin

Source: Small Cap Investor
After this past Sunday night I believe there is potential for a sustained and real economic recovery in the United States.
I say this because on Sunday, I was fortunate enough to catch a re-run of the first episode of 'Sarah Palin's Alaska', a reality show featuring the notorious Tea Party advocate, prior Alaskan governor, and 2008 vice-presidential candidate doing what she apparently loves to do - travel around Alaska in a float plane to do outdoor activities with her family.
On November 15, 'Sarah Palin's Alaska', debuted on TLC to a network record 5 million viewers.
Why did my experience with this horror of a reality show make me feel that Americans are on the right track?
Because after watching the show I did a little research - and learned that in the second episode, which aired on November 22, the audience fell by nearly 40 percent, to just around 3 million viewers.

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I should point out that my feelings about Sarah Palin's new television show, or really any feelings I have about Sarah Palin in general, have nothing to do with my ability as an analyst. So you shouldn’t care what I think about Sarah Palin. But you should care about my ability to pick up on trends and draw valuable conclusions from them. And this brings me to my point.
***The data show that Americans are increasingly turning their attention away from time consuming and attention dilutive activities, like Sarah Palin's Alaska, to focus on more productive activities. If they can continue to stop diluting focus, and start doing the things that really matter, we can re-build America into a great country.
For another data point, consider that U.S. worker productivity growth has averaged 3.4 percent on an annualized basis since the recession ended in June of 2009. Productivity is almost as high as it was after the dot-com era recession in 2001-2003, after which the U.S. enjoyed years of positive growth.
For my part I turned the show off and I began stock research for a busy week of work after a long holiday weekend.
***During Sarah Palin's brief visit to my living room I was reminded of the basic investing lessons that small cap investors must keep on their radar at all times.
These lessons boil down to one key phrase - "Focus on the stuff that gets stuff done."
That's pretty basic, but it pretty much covers everything important. Especially since self-directed investors are constantly pulled every which way by the massive amounts of content that is published in both digital and paper media these days.
All of these opinions, stories, and marketing efforts dilute the self-directed investor's focus from doing the stuff that gets stuff done - and fills their minds with a ton of garbage that doesn't really matter.
So what 'gets' stuff done for the small cap investor?
Look for great growth companies in strong industries, do fundamental research to identify stocks that are undervalued, and monitor your positions to ensure they are still the right ones to own.
It's literally that simple. Everything else is secondary.
Of course it's also important to consider macro trends in order to keep your investments in perspective, but at the end of the day you need to buy shares in individual companies. And that means focusing on finding the right ones.
Nothing else is nearly as important.
To help you keep your focus, I've put together a very brief list of the four things that matter most when you're doing your stock research. Consider these the four lessons that Sarah Palin reinforced for me this past Sunday when she was diluting my focus.
Stay focused on these four lessons and you'll see far better investing results.
1. Those companies that grow revenues and earnings over time typically see their share prices increase as well. These are the stocks that you want to own.
2. Stock prices move based upon past financial results and on expectations for future financial performance.
3. To help predict future performance, study a company's past financial results because historical performance can help to predict future results.



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4. Buying growth at a reasonable price often yields outperforming stock investments. If you do the above three steps, you'll have a much better idea of what a reasonable price is.
Doing the above has helped me and Tyler Laundon, lead research analyst at Wyatt Investment Research's Small Cap Investor PRO to recommend stocks that have gone up an average of 33.7 percent since May. We're not trying to make it too complicated, or trying to perfectly time every investment.
We're just focused on finding companies that are growing revenues and earnings, and are selling at a discount to their fair value. You can do the same thing.
Further Reading: The Biggest Gains ALWAYS Come from Small Cap Stocks: Here you can learn more about the strategy that Tyler and I use to find small cap stocks, like two that we are up 81 percent and .....read more on small cap investor

Did you know that you can earn an MBA degree on Facebook?

Source: Geeksugar.com
Earn a Legit MBA Degree on Facebook
Wednesday December 1, 2010
by Leta Shy
Nothing says study break quite like a hop onto Facebook to see what's happening in your news feed. But what if Facebook is the place where you go to study? A London university is now offering an MBA degree on Facebook, and you can access it for free.
The London School of Business and Finance's Global MBA program is certified by the University of Wales. And so far it's been popular: the course has already 30,000 active users, all of whom can use the social network to their virtual study group advantage, and the founder predicts that more than 500,000 will access the app within a year to "test drive" an MBA.
Find out more about the program and how you can earn the degree after the jump.
Once you access the app via your Facebook profile, you have access to video lectures, discussions, and course materials in corporate finance, accounting, marketing, ethics, and strategic planning. While you can take any of the classes for free, earning credit toward an MBA will cost you the same as the university's other distance-learning MBA degree — about $23,000.
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Why offer a degree on Facebook? The school's managing director Valery Kisilevsky says that they are just responding to the times. "Today’s students don’t email, or send in their complaints in writing, or come in to the office. They just post their feedback on Facebook, and we are expected to respond.”
What do you think about getting an MBA degree on Facebook?

Study finds that the rich is getting richer

December 1, 2010
By Heather Scoffield, The Canadian Press

OTTAWA - Canada has entered a 1920s-like Gilded Age, where the super-rich consolidate their wealth while the middle class stagnates.

That's the conclusion of a new study based on income-tax forms filed up until 2007, showing that the richest one per cent of Canadians took home 13.8 per cent of all incomes claimed that year.

The share of total income going to the richest of the rich has risen steadily since the early 1980s, reversing a long-term trend toward a more equal distribution of the country's income during the postwar '50s, '60s and '70s, the study says.

"The higher up the ladder you go, the more colossal this glomming of wealth becomes," author Armine Yalnizyan, senior economist at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, said in an interview.

Her paper, to be released Wednesday, is based on unpublished tax form data crunched by Mike Veall, an economics professor at McMaster University in Hamilton.

The numbers show that the richest one per cent quickly gained ground in Canada between 1925 and 1935. It was the era epitomized by the writings of Horatio Alger — the days of rags to riches, when millions of poor North Americans believed they could strike it rich.

"Like the Gilded Age a century ago, Canada is awash in money generated by an emerging new global economy," Yalnizyan writes. "During both slow and rapid periods of growth, incomes have increasingly become concentrated in the hands of the elite few rather than creating greater prosperity for all."

The inequality gap of the '20s and early '30s eventually collapsed and then switched direction with the Second World War, narrowing and steadily declining until about 1982. Since then, the super-rich have gradually claimed larger and larger pieces of the total income pie.

"Most Canadians are inching their way through recovery, trying to hang on to what they've got," Yalnizyan writes. "But for some Canadians, things have never been so good."

The higher up the income scale, the more dramatic the gains. For the richest one per cent, the share of all Canadian incomes almost doubled between the late 1970s and 2007. For the richest 0.1 per cent of tax files, their total share almost tripled during those 20 years.

And for the creme-de-la-creme — the richest 0.01 per cent making more than $640,000 a year — their share of total incomes more than quintupled.

The trends shown in the tax data are undeniable, analysts say. What is in question, however, is why the trends are so relentless, whether they are cause for concern, and what the appropriate public-policy response should be.

"It's best data we have on the issue," said Andrew Sharpe, executive director of the Centre for the Study of Living Standards. "The key issue is, what's driving this?"

Yalnizyan's study shows that the super-rich are increasingly reliant on their wages — much like the rest of us. That hasn't always been the case. In the 1940s, for example, the top income-earners were mainly entrepreneurs who made it rich directly from the proceeds of their businesses.

In other words, the super-rich in Canada are mainly the top executives of large companies who are being well compensated by their boards and shareholders.

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At the same time, the income tax regime has not kept up with the super-sized salaries of the ultra-rich, Yalnizyan says, so they're able to retain more of their earnings.

There's no solid explanation for why executives are being so well paid, especially when wages for most other sectors of the economy have stagnated.

A similar phenomenon can be seen in Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and especially the United States, said Veall at McMaster. But non-English-speaking countries such as France and Italy don't show the same inequality gap.

While some researchers believe the super-rich are beneficiaries of advancing technology in a global economy, the discrepancies between countries undermine that theory, Veall said. Corporate governance structures in English-speaking countries may offer a partial explanation, but there too, there's no reason why the trend would suddenly change in the early 1980s, he said.

Long-time policy guru Peter Nicholson — who published his own analysis on an earlier version of the income-tax findings — suspects the numbers speak to a cultural shift.

"Corporate chieftains have entered the realm that was formally reserved for sports stars and rock stars," Nicholson said.

In his earlier paper, Nicholson warned of social unrest if the trend towards increasing inequality were to persist. The trend has indeed persisted, but Nicholson said any backlash would likely start in the United States, where the inequality is far more exacerbated than here in Canada.

There, public discontent over large salaries going to bankers who nearly brought down the global financial system and required taxpayer-funded bailouts has simmered down somewhat.

More concerning, said Nicholson and other researchers, is that Canadians have no firm grasp on why the super-rich are increasingly in an untouchable league of their own.

"At least you have to understand why this is happening. Is it fair, or is it a good thing?"

MBA student’s thesis was plagiarised

Source: Tribune
RAWALPINDI: Registrar Bahria University and Examination Controller appeared in court for the case of a student who was not awarded an MBA degree.  Petitioner Shahid Nafees Mirza completed his MBA  in November 2009 but has yet to receive his degree.
In the hearing on Monday, university registrar Mumtaz Raza claimed that the reason for not issuing Mirza his degree was that the student’s thesis was plagiarised. Raza said that, in accordance with policy, the thesis was analysed using the new software provided by the Higher Education Commission (HEC) in 2010.
The court questioned the university for giving the student verbal assurances regarding his thesis and the concerned department for clearing Mirza in internal exams. Registrar Raza maintained that since the submitted thesis was identified as being plagiarised by the HEC’s software, a degree could not be issued.
The registrar did, however, admit to certain administrative shortcomings and co-ordination failures between relevant departments.
He said that people in administrative posts responsible for creating unnecessary obstacles or providing misleading information would be held responsible.
He promised action against such people regardless of whether they were suffering from incompetence or deliberately helping the student pass in an unfair manner.
The next hearing will be on December 30. Mirza’s legal counsel Mohsin Akhtar Kayani had filed a writ petition in LHC Rawalpindi Bench, in which he maintained that the petitioner was enrolled in the year 2002 for a Master in Business Administration in Finance.

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The normal period for the completion of this degree ended in 2005, but due to domestic problems, the student could not complete his research work in the prescribed time. Mirza was subsequently given an extension.
The petitioner said he successfully completed the remaining requirements for the thesis in November 2009. The concerned authority of the university approved the thesis and Deputy Director Academics confirmed that the degree would be awarded.
Later the result and degree were withheld. On July 23, Mirza filed the petition against the university. The respondent told Mirza that his thesis was plagiarised.
According to Mirza’s legal counsel, the allegation was leveled without a show-cause notice and the petitioner was not even given a hearing.
The legal counsel of the petitioner told the court that the university directed Mirza to submit an amount of Rs78,000 which Mirza deposited.
He also cleared other outstanding dues.
The counsel said in court that after completion of all programme requirements, it was the fundamental right of the petitioner to be awarded the MBA degree but the respondent had delayed the matter unnecessarily.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 30th, 2010.

The largest arms deal ever between US and Saudi Arabia

$60B U.S.-Saudi Arms Deal Sealed

A $60 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia that raised eyebrows among pro-Israeli lawmakers was expected to be a done deal at midnight Friday.

The Defense Department notified Congress of the plan last month, and lawmakers had 30 days to try to block or amend the deal. Without loud objections voiced by Israel, the matter received little debate and lawmakers focused their attention on the Nov. 2 congressional elections.

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The 10-year deal is considered one of the largest-ever single U.S. arms sales. It is intended to strengthen Saudi defense forces as a counter to Iran's growing power in the Persian Gulf region.

The package includes 84 new F-15 fighter jets, upgrades to 70 existing Saudi F-15s, 190 helicopters and a wide array of missiles, bombs and delivery systems, as well as accessories such as night-vision goggles and radar warning systems.

In a Nov. 10 bipartisan letter to Defense Secretary
Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, 198 House members asked for assurances that the sale would not hurt Israel's military edge in the Middle East.

Gates and Clinton responded in a letter signed Tuesday that they were confident that Israel's military prowess would not be undercut by the deal because of special attention paid to its close ally through U.S. arms sales and other initiatives.

"Our commitment to Israel's QME (qualitative military edge) is rock solid and long-standing," they wrote.

Israeli officials said they were not pleased with the proposed sale but would not try to prevent it.

The new and upgraded F-15s are aimed at accelerating defense cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia as it would standardize the fleet of the Saudi Air Force and make it more compatible with that of the United States and other Gulf allies.

The helicopters, including Apache, Black Hawk and Little Bird attack choppers, would give Saudi authorities greater ability to protect borders along with military installations and oil facilities.

Country Profile

Saudi Arabia is America’s top customer. Since 1990, the U.S. government, through the Pentagon’s arms export program, has arranged for the delivery of more than $39.6 billion in foreign military sales to Saudi Arabia, and an additional $394 million worth of arms were delivered to the Saudi regime through the State Department’s direct commercial sales program during that same period. (Foreign Military and Construction Sales and Direct Commercial Sales are recorded and published by the Dept. of Defense in Foreign Military Sales, Foreign Military Construction Sales and Military Assistance Facts; the most current online edition includes information through FY 1999.)

Oil rich Saudi Arabia is a cash-paying customer. It receives no U.S. military assistance to finance these purchases, although it does demand that about 35 percent of all major contracts be "offset"-that is, economic benefits equaling 35 percent of the arms contract value must be steered back to the Saudi economy. (Check out the Offsets Monitoring Project for more information on this phenomenon.)

The United States has very close and long-running military ties to the Saudi regime dating back to 1945. Following the 1990-91 war against Iraq, more than 5,000 U.S. troops and thousands of U.S. military contractors have been continuously based in Saudi Arabia. However, several concerns have been raised about this close military cooperation and the related sales of sophisticated arms. These concerns are:

* sophisticated arms sales to Saudi Arabia spurring regional arms races
* high level military expenditures undermining stability
* opposition to American military presence on Saudi soil
* political repression and violations of human rights
* border disputes and regional tension
* concerns about proliferation of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles
* support for international terrorism

Sophisticated arms sales to Saudi Arabia spurring regional arms races

With billions of petro-dollars, Saudi Arabia has been buying very modern, deadly weapons from America.

Many of the systems on order, such as the M-1A2 Abrams main battle tank, M-2A2 Bradley armored vehicles, F-15E Strike Eagle attack aircraft and Patriot surface-to-air missile, are the top-of-the-line systems deployed with U.S. forces.

A flurry of expensive arms sales followed the 1990-91 Gulf War. However, long before Iraq invaded Kuwait, Saudi Arabia sought to obtain America’s most sophisticated weaponry in order to counterbalance its much more populous regional rivals-Iran and Iraq. From 1986-93, these three countries accounted for nearly 40 percent of all arms exports to developing world countries. Saudi Arabia imported $55.6 billion in arms, Iraq imported $22.7 billion, and Iran imported $13.9 billion. (Richard F. Grimmett, Congressional Research Service, Conventional Arms Transfers to the Third World, 1986-93," 29 July 1994)

Recent U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia have dramatically raised the level of military technology in the region, spurring arms races with other Persian Gulf states and with Israel. Having denied Egypt’s request for the sale of Apache helicopters equipped with Longbow radar, the U.S. government has approved the possible sale of this technology to Saudi Arabia. This move opens the way for a further shift in the balance of power and technology in this region.

The sale of F-15E bombers provides a good case study of how others respond to sales of high-tech U.S. arms. Saudi Arabia had sought to buy the jet in the mid-1980s, but Congress opposed the sale on the grounds that it would threaten Israel. (While relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia improved following the Gulf War, the two are technically still in a state of war.) In September 1992, the Bush Administration and Congress approved the export of 48 of the aircraft to Saudi Arabia, largely on the basis of an aggressive "jobs now" campaign waged by McDonnell Douglas (MD), the manufacturer of the aircraft. The Air Force was finished procuring the jet, and so MD devised a national campaign to promote the controversial sale explicitly on the number of jobs that it would sustain (see Arms Sales Monitor No. 16 and No. 17). The sale got caught up in presidential politics, with then-candidate Bill Clinton endorsing the deal while on a campaign stop in St. Louis, where the jet is manufactured. Shortly thereafter President Bush announced his support for the sale while at a campaign-style rally at the McDonnell Douglas factory.

This was the first time the jet--which can deliver twelve tons of bombs 1,000 miles--had been exported to any nation. Only two years previously, the plane was rushed into service with the U.S.Air Force for the Gulf War, where it was used on hundreds of deep-strike bombing raids. The Saudi planes will be less capable than U.S. F-15E jets: they will carry less ordnance and are not currently slated to carry AMRAAM or HARM missiles, and the radar will have a lower resolution. Nevertheless, this was the most sophisticated combat aircraft the United States had ever exported...until a year and a half later, when the Clinton Administration and Congress agreed to give Israel 21 F-15E bombers with greater capabilities, in order to maintain Israel's qualitative military edge over Saudi Arabia.

Having gained U.S. government approval for two sales of its most advanced fighter-bomber, MD is eagerly anticipating more: It recently competed (unsuccessfully) for a sale of 20 to 80 long-range attack planes to the United Arab Emirates. The winner of that $8 billion-plus competition is Lockheed Martin, which will develop an "enhanced strategic" version of its popular F-16 fighter for the U.A.E. The F-16"ES" would have several improved features over the F-16s flown by the U.S. Air Force: a reduced radar signature, conformal fuel tanks, internal navigation and targeting gear and a un-refueled combat range of 1,000 miles. In addition, as a condition of the sale, the U.A.E. has demanded that the jets be equipped with the Air Force's most advanced medium-range air-to-air missile (AMRAAM)-- and the Clinton Administration agreed. Previously the U.S. had declined to export this missile to countries in the region. Now Israel, Egypt, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia have all lined up to get AMRAAMs.

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Since the U.A.E. jet sale, Saudi Arabia has been making noises about buying more F-15s, which Israel opposes. Saudi Arabia has threatened the United States not to base decisions future export decisions on regional security and avoiding arms races: “Officials in the Saudi capital have hinted that the kingdom may look elsewhere for a replacement for the F-5 if the USA continues to link future military sales to Israeli security concerns.” (“Country Briefing: Saudi Arabia,” Jane's Defense Weekly, 18 August 1999, p. 30).

Through these sales, the U.S. government has dramatically raised the standard of combat aircraft and munitions of U.S. allies in the region, many of whom are engaged in a "cold peace" with each other. Large-scale sales of advanced conventional weapons to our Middle Eastern allies play into the threat perceptions of "unfriendly" governments as well, in this case Iran and Iraq, spurring them to seek countervailing weapons. Such sales by the United States also give the green light to other arms exporters to introduce new levels of military technology into this and other tense regions. A 1995 report by the CIA's non-proliferation center noted that "as countries' reliance on exports to maintain their defense industrial base grows, pressures will increase to export advanced conventional weapons and technologies to remain competitive with the United States in the world arms market" (emphasis added). By making multi-billion dollar sales of extremely advanced weaponry to the Middle East, the United States government has diminished credibility in pressing other governments to refrain from making sales that it views as dangerous. [See U.S. Nonproliferation Policy, hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Committee (Washington: U.S. GPO, 1994), pp. 27-29 on the difficulty the United States faces in persuading Russia to forgo arms exports to Iran, given high level U.S. arms transfers to Persian Gulf countries.]

At the same time, defense and intelligence officials now routinely cite the spread of advanced and, on occasion, low end conventional weapons as a threat to U.S. security. And, completing the circle, the military services and industry justify development and production of next-generation weapons on the basis of arms being acquired by Third World nations, including previously-exported U.S. systems. In lobbying Congress for production funds for its F-22 fighter, Lockheed cites the widespread proliferation of very capable combat aircraft, like the Russian MiG-29 and the American-made F-15 and F-16.

High level military expenditures undermining stability

From 1987-97 Saudi Arabia is estimated to have spent $262 billion (constant 1997 dollars) on its military, with its annual military expenditure consuming on average 18 percent of GNP. (By comparison, the United States spent about 4.6 percent of its GNP on the military during this same time.) During just 1995-97, over $31 billion was spent on arms imports from the United States and Europe. (U.S. State Department, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers 1998)

Low oil prices, a $60 billion tab for the 1991 Gulf War, and tens of billions of dollars worth of new weapons have led to large budget deficits for the past several years. These budgetary problems have led the Saudi Kingdom to revise payments on $25-$30 billion of U.S. arms contracts. A January 1994 deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia extends payment and delivery schedules for outstanding weapons orders; less important orders may be postponed. Saudi financial problems will grow when the embargo on Iraqi oil sales--in place since 1991--is lifted.

According to William Quandt, a middle east scholar at the Brookings Institution, "This is not a popular regime. It's a huge patronage system that has spread the wealth around. If you take that away, you could contribute to a political crisis" (New York Times, 23 August 1993).

In May 1995 the State Department acknowledged that the economic downturn in Saudi Arabia is undermining political stability in the sheikdom, as the Saudi government is cutting popular public subsidies for gas, electricity and water in an effort to redress the deficit. In a letter to Rep. Lee Hamilton (D-IN), the State Department reported that "Tighter government budgets have reduced employment opportunities for young Saudis, frozen wages and slowed the private sector.... The short term economic downturn has colored popular perceptions of the government’s financial management and sharpened the distinctions among the social groups. These economic strains have added to the resentment over the advantages enjoyed by the very large Saudi royal family."

Hamilton asked the State Department whether U.S. efforts to boost sales of advanced weaponry and aircraft have contributed to the Saudis’ financial woes and whether the burden of these payments contributes to anti-American sentiment. "We are aware that the high profile of some U.S. commercial successes has generated criticism of the U.S. in sectors of Saudi society which believe incorrectly that the U.S. has pressed the Saudi government to make unwanted or unneeded purchases," said the State Department. "It is the Saudis alone who have defined their import priorities. Thus, it is misleading to suggest that U.S. companies are responsible for Saudi economic problems." (For a copy of Rep. Hamilton’s inquiry and the State Department’s response, see Congressional Record, 2 May 1995, pp. E908-10)

Actually, the United States has been helping Saudi Arabia define its military needs for over fifty years. In 1991, Lt. Gen. Dennis Malcor completed the most recent DOD assessment of Saudi Arabia’s security needs, which presumably laid the ground work for recent U.S. sales of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, F-15E bombers and M-1A2 tanks. And, according to a report in the Washington Times in May 1995, the Pentagon recommended that the Saudis buy several Aegis-class destroyers and cruisers at $1 billion each.

Opposition to American military presence on Saudi soil

Despite high military spending, Saudi Arabia remains unable to defend itself, principally because of its small population and large territory. There are only about 7 million Saudis, while there are 21 million people in Iraq and 66 million in Iran. The chief of U.S. naval intelligence has said that, regardless of "long-term plans to expand their military with the purchase of equipment..., it is doubtful that the Saudis would be able to counter threats from Iran and Iraq completely. The United States, or a coalition, would have to be called upon again to provide protection or to repel aggression." A prominent Saudi official has said the Gulf War demonstrated that "no matter how built up we become, we can't replace the U.S....The U.S. is our protector."

The "invasion" of Saudi Arabia by hundreds of thousands of Western soldiers during Operation Desert Storm caused a backlash among Saudi conservatives, and some liberals, who want to preserve Arabian culture and fear domination by the West. Some secular Saudis dislike the Saudi family's domination of the state and the corruption it breeds. More radical Muslims assail the royal family for allying itself with the infidel United States. For decades, the Saudis avoided publicly associating themselves too closely with the United States unless absolutely necessary.

A powerful bomb exploded at Saudi National Guard headquarters in Riyadh on 13 November 1995, killing eight and wounding 60 more. Over 1,300 U.S. Army and civilian contractors work there training the Guard, whose main function is to protect the ruling family. Five of the dead and half of the casualties were Americans. Since the blast, the U.S. embassy has repeatedly advised the 30,000 Americans in Saudi Arabia (many of them arms contractors or military personnel) to "keep a low profile." Lt. Gen. Thomas Rhame, director of the Pentagon’s arms sales agency, notified Congress two days after the blast that, "The overall effectiveness of the U.S. security assistance mission in Saudi Arabia is not expected to be hampered as a result of this incident."

Two Islamic groups claimed responsibility for the bombings, and four Saudis were publicly beheaded on 31 May 1996 for their connection to the bombing. Their confession which implicated Saudi financier Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda network of terrorists was later dismissed.

A second bomb exploded at the Khobar Towers, just outside an airbase in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia on 25 June 1996. Nineteen American servicemen were killed and 100 were seriously injured in the blast. Speculation that bin Laden was behind the bombings has more recently been dismissed, but the U.S. Justice Department has charged that the Saudi Government is withholding evidence and hindering the investigation into the bombing.

The U.S. government continues to support the government of King Fahd, but it has decided to move U.S. troops away from major cities to more secure (isolated) parts of the country. In June 1997, Secretary of Defense William Cohen traveled to Saudi Arabia, where he met with King Fahd. The two confirmed the "firm and unshakable" relationship between the two countries (Washington Times, 15 June 1997).

Political repression and violations of human rights

Despite the show of U.S. support demonstrated by this astounding quantity of arms sales, Saudi Arabia’s human rights record is very poor. According to the U.S. State Department’s 2000 Human Rights Report, the Saudi government’s "human rights record remained generally poor in a number of areas,” with reports of arbitrary arrest, prolonged detention and physical abuse of prisoners. Such practices technically violate Saudi law, yet security forces commit abuses “with the acquiescence” of the government. In addition, the government prohibits or restricts freedom of speech, the press, assembly, association, and religion. Since Saudi Arabia is a monarchy, there is no method or right by which citizens can bring about government change.

Amnesty International has recently launched a campaign to highlight the worst abuses of the Saudi justice system and the relative silence of the international community. Concurring with and expanding upon the State Department’s annual report, Amnesty documents experiences young, female, foreign workers who have been charges and sentenced without any semblance of due process, such as access to a lawyer, consulate, or even information about the crimes allegedly committed. Also detailed are tales of torture of prisoners using electro-shock batons—weapons that the U.S. Commerce Department has authorized to be shipped to Saudi Arabia at least a dozen times.

Saudi Arabia’s position as a strategic Gulf ally has blinded U.S. officials into approving a level and quality of arms exports that should never have been allowed to a non-democratic country with a poor human rights record.

The United States has also sold small weapons and security equipment most likely to be used in the commission of human rights abuses. The Pentagon delivered $23 million worth of guns and ammunition to Saudi Arabia during 1996-98, and the State Department authorized export of another $4.8 million of guns, grenade launchers, police riot control equipment, ammunition, and ammunition raw materials and manufacturing equipment during the same time period. The U.S. Department of Commerce has authorized the transfer of electro-shock batons, and police equipment possibly including thumb cuffs, leg irons, shackles, and handcuffs.

Are Israel's calls for the United States to attack Iran legitimate?

Source: Jewishmag.com
Nuclear Iran
Israel in view of Iran's Nuclear Threat

By Matania Ginosar

The president of Iran said recently that Israel should be wiped off the map. How serious is this when you combine it with Iran's urgent developments of nuclear weapons?

My first encounter with Iranian culture was decades ago while spending a summer with two Iranian students in Oregon. They were from high income homes and very adamant about Iranians superiority to all Arabs. They insisted that this belief is shared by most Iranians, and was fully justified based on the glorious history of the their old Persian empire thousands of years ago. This national superiority, I believe, is one of the most important ingredients in Iran's attitude as a nation, and its view of the world.

In addition, and more profoundly important, is Iran's leadership belief that their Shiite-Muslim faith is superior to all other Muslim's, and definitely to non Muslim creeds. They also believe that they must propagate their extremist creed to all people, worldwide, BY ANY MEANS AVAILABLE, INCLUDING WAR. With these convictions you have a very volatile, unyielding , and dangerous nation. Therefore, Iran is essentially isolated politically from most Western countries, has no friends among the Arab nations, besides Syria. Iran is economically weak, however, its large oil sales gives it political clout, especially with China, and a large national budget to do what it wants.

Forty years ago I heard the Shah of Iran speak in my UCLA gradation ceremony. He wanted to develop nuclear power plants to generate electricity saving the vast oil reserves in Iran to be used as raw material for plastic. Some were concerned then that he wanted to use the nuclear power plants to help him gain nuclear weapon technology. The same concerns many have now about the current Iranian nuclear power development.

A decade later at a large defense contractor, my officemate; an American-Iranian, was our representative to Iran during the Shah's last few years of power. After each of my friend's frequent business trips to Iran he debriefed me about the situation there: the tight personal control of the Shah of most activities, and the suffering of the people. I was not surprised when a few years later the Iranian revolution took place.

Unfortunately, in 1979 when the Iranians took hostage of our embassy in Teheran, the US had a too idealistic president, President Carter. He is a very decent man, a moral man, but his inaction in the face of the Iranian hostage taking embolden the Iranians to further extremism. In the Iranians own words, they had expected a fierce US response and they were surprised to find the US to be just a paper tiger.

A few years back I saw a short TV documentary of thousands of young Iranians men running in the streets, chanting religious slogans while their self mutilated bodies were covered with blood. They were celebrating a religious holiday. Obviously most Iranians are not extremists, but the moderates that could escape did it years ago as the following will illustrate. A relative of mine just returned from three years in Greece of helping Middle Eastern refugees. One of the refugees told her why she escaped from a fairly wealthy life in Iran: When she was a teenager she was offered a bible by a stranger on a street in Teheran. She was from a secular family, accepted it to be polite, and forgot about it. A few days later the "Morality police" searched her purse, found the bible and led her directly to jail. Her wealthy father offered the prison's commander a bribe equal to the commander's full year salary and got her out. The next day all the family flew to Europe leaving almost everything behind. They were afraid that her release would be detected and she and the rest of the family could go to very oppressive prisons. They are safe now, but are refugees in Greece searching for a more stable future.

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Now, when we listen to the President of Iran telling the world, Israel must be wiped off the map, we must take it seriously. These are not idle words. Similar words were uttered before, may be in more moderate words, by other Iranian leaders. From the creation of the State of Israel many Arab leaders believed it was their destiny to destroy Israel, tried and failed. No world leader objected, (except the US), and several helped the Arabs. I am gratified that so many world leaders condemned Iran president's attitude now. Their condemnations came because we are now facing nuclear weapons and this a completely different story. No country can defend itself from nuclear attack. And after attacking Israel, what if Iran is determined to wipe England next?

We must grasp that this desire to destroy Israel is not just for internal consumption. The President, and the Iranian leadership really mean it. Iran has been the largest aggressive supporter of terrorism against Israel for decades. We can be sure that Iran will do everything in its power to finish the development of its nuclear weapons. They already have a robust missile delivery system (Shahab 3) that can reach not only all countries in the Middle East, but also Europe. Iran's neighbors, including Egypt, and Saudi are very concerned about Iran's nuclear weapons development, which may lead to a Middle East nuclear weapon's race. That, along with the instability of the governments in the Middle East, and the spread of Arab and Muslim extremists, the world will face a much riskier and dangerous future.

Israel's population is concentrated in a very small region, about 20 by 50 miles. A few nuclear explosions could decimate most of its population, including hundred of thousands Israeli Arabs. This is not a deterrence to Iran and Muslim extremists. In the minds of terrorists and Iran, the killing of Israeli-Arab is justified in order to destroy Israel.

Quite a few friends have asked me what Israel will do. Let me make some observations: First of all, it is not possible to destroy a substantial portion of Iran nuclear facilities since they are dispersed and some are underground.

Second, if military attacks could destroy some, the Iranians would do everything in their power to speed up the development without any restraint. They have already sped up the process in the last few years, and especially after the fall of Saddam, and they are not willing to stop the build up no matter what the West will offer them.

Third, the naivety of the West in offering Iran rewards to stop its nuclear development is a game where the Iranians are masters in, and have been playing the West to give them more time to finish their nuclear weapons.

Forth, the Iranians are happy that our hands are tied right now in Iraq.

Fifth, the Iranian leadership is extremely smart and deceitful, they can not be trusted whatever they say.

Israel and the West can not accept the fact that the wishes of any unstable leader in the world may stand between a nuclear war and stability. In today's world, with North Korea playing the nuclear game as well as Iran, and the unstable country of Pakistan possessing nuclear weapons, I believe, you can not practice peace activism and survive.

Israel informed the Iranians via the diplomatic community that it has more than one submarine carrying nuclear weapons in close proximity to the Iranian shores at all times. If it is true or not is not important, however, it is important that the Iranians will believe it. But this is a inadequate deterrence, and may be just a stop gap measure. Although Israel has over 100 nuclear weapons it would not use any in a preemptive attack

Is there any solution? No reliable, or simple solution exists, as there is no sure way we can stop terrorists from detonating a small, but lethal nuclear weapon inside the US, or any other country, if they are able to.

Deterrence does not work with unstable and irrational leaders. The MAD, mutual assure destruction, that kept the US and the USSR from using nuclear weapons, works only with rational people who love life more than the destruction of their enemies. This is not the case with terrorists, neither, it seems, with the Iranian leadership, in my judgment.

Most Iranian political elements support the push to a nuclear Iran. The previously labeled "moderate" leadership of Iran was not moderate, it continued the nuclear weapon program, and lost the last election. The future of Iran nuclear weapons is beyond our control.

Only a powerful and universal cessation of all commercial and diplomatic contacts with Iran could possibly open their eyes and change their militaristic attitude. And this is not possible in our "every country for itself" world attitude.

My conclusion are: Iran is determined to posses nuclear weapons and no one can stop them. If they find any practical way, Iran will consider seriously destroying Israel with these weapons. There is little that can be done now to reliably stop this process.

It is extremely difficult to accept these conclusions, but remember the 9/11 Commission observation that the FBI and CIA were unable to prevent the attack partially because of their "failure of the imagination." The global community must be aware and alert, no matter how difficult it is to face. We must develop effective international tools to deal with dangers of this nature. After all, Iran would not be the last rough nuclear nation.

Matania Ginosar is a Doctor of Environmental Science and Engineering